EIA Raises 2025 Oil Price Forecast Amid Lower Global Inventories

Business 15 January 2025 23:30

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has increased its crude oil price forecast for 2025 due to lower global oil inventories in early 2025, as detailed in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), CE Report quotes Anadolu Agency

The EIA attributes the price increase to OPEC+ extending production cuts, leading to a reduction of global oil inventories by an average of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the first quarter. The agency predicts crude oil prices will rise by $2 per barrel from December 2024, reaching an average of $76 per barrel in Q1 2025.

However, prices are expected to decline in mid-2025 as global oil production outpaces demand growth. The EIA projects Brent crude will average $74.31 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) $70.31 per barrel for the year, slightly up from last month’s forecast.

For 2024, average prices are forecasted at $80.56 per barrel for Brent and $76.60 per barrel for WTI.

Key risks to the forecast include potential changes in OPEC+ production commitments and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which could significantly affect prices.

US and Global Oil Production Outlook

US crude oil production is projected to average 13.55 million bpd in 2025, up from 13.21 million bpd in 2024 and 30,000 bpd higher than previous forecasts. Global production is expected to reach 104.36 million bpd by year-end, with demand at 104.1 million bpd.

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EIA Raises 2025 Oil Price Forecast Amid Lower Global Inventories

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