Greece to revise 2026 economic forecasts

The Economy and Finance Ministry of Greece is expected to revise its macroeconomic forecasts for 2026, according to reliable sources.

Based on the latest data following the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, the growth rate to be announced for this year in Greece is now estimated at around 2% (down from 2.2% in 2025), compared to the 2.4% GDP growth forecast included in the state budget.

Inflation is also expected to rise to approximately 3% (from 2.6% in 2025), instead of falling to 2.2% as initially projected in the baseline scenario, CE Report quotes ANA-MPA.

This revision will be officially reflected on April 30, with the submission to the European Commission of the annual progress report regarding the targets of the Medium-Term Fiscal-Structural Plan 2026-2029. The issue has already been under discussion since late March in a series of meetings between the economic staff and officials from the Commission, which are expected to continue after Easter.

A chain of revisions internationally

Greece is not the only country forced to revise its forecasts. Due to the crisis in the Middle East, countries worldwide are already adjusting their projections, and the European Commission is also expected to do the same in its Spring Forecasts for all of Europe toward the end of May.

In the same direction, updated projections from the International Monetary Fund estimate Greek growth at 1.8% (down from 2% in October 2025), while the Parliamentary Budget Office recently announced it expects growth of 2%, compared to an earlier forecast of 2.1% in December 2025.

A similar revision was made by the Bank of Greece, which on Holy Monday officially submitted a new forecast of 1.9% growth (down from 2.1%) and inflation at 3.1% for 2026, citing disruptions in energy markets and global supply chains due to war and the energy crisis.

Despite the deterioration in forecasts, as emphasized in its report by the Governor of the Bank of Greece, Yannis Stournaras, the Greek economy remains in a better position not only compared to other countries but also relative to its past. He projected a primary surplus of 4.4% of GDP for 2025-and an overall budget surplus for a second consecutive year-alongside a reduction in public debt to 146% of GDP, the lowest level since 2010.

Final data for 2025 are expected to be announced on April 22, one week before the revised macroeconomic forecasts are officially presented on April 30.