Russian forces likely preparing for new offensive effort in summer – ISW

Russian forces will likely continue ongoing offensive efforts to destabilize Ukrainian defensive lines in the spring of 2024 while also preparing for a forecasted new offensive effort in the summer of 2024.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said this in its latest report, according to Ukrinform.

According to experts, the provision of Western security assistance will likely play a critical role in Ukraine’s ability to hold territory now and to repel a new Russian offensive effort in the coming months.

At the same time, Russian forces are particularly concentrating on pushing as far west of Avdiivka as possible before Ukrainian forces can establish a harder-to-penetrate line in the area.

ISW experts note that Russian forces will continue to use the advantages provided by possessing the theater-wide initiative to dynamically reweight their offensive efforts this spring and into the summer, likely in hopes of exploiting possible Ukrainian vulnerabilities.

“Well-provisioned Ukrainian forces have shown that they can prevent Russian forces from making even marginal gains during large-scale Russian offensive efforts, and there is no reason to doubt that Ukraine could further stabilize the frontline and prepare for repelling the reported Russian offensive effort this summer if materiel shortages abated,” the report says.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, according to the General Staff, the total combat losses of the Russian army in Ukraine from 24 February 2022 to 16 March 2024 amounted to about 429,580 troops, including 1,160 killed and wounded in the past day.