Collapse of Assad’s regime could damage Russia’s global image and African influence - ISW

The loss of military bases in Syria will have serious consequences for Russia's broad military footprint in Africa and its ability to operate in the region, CE Report quotes Ukrinform.

That’s according to a report by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank, Ukrinform reports.

The latest summary notes that Russia has been using its naval base in Tartus to project power in the Mediterranean Sea, threaten NATO's southern flank, and to link its Black Sea assets to the Mediterranean Sea.

"The loss of Russian bases in Syria will likely disrupt Russian logistics, resupply efforts, and Africa Corps rotations, particularly weakening Russia’s operations and power projection in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa," experts believe.

Analysts suggest that Russia could try to leverage its presence in Libya or Sudan as alternatives, but the lack of formal agreements with these countries and insufficient infrastructure make them inadequate substitutes.

“The collapse of Assad's regime and Russia’s inability to preserve the regime will also damage Russia’s global image as a reliable ally, threatening its influence with African autocrats whom Russia seeks to support and its broader geopolitical objective to posture as a global superpower,” the ISW concluded.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, the combined forces of the Syrian opposition announced Sunday morning the liberation of the country’s capital, Damascus. The opposition also said President Bashar al-Assad had fled the city.