Exact Ballon d'Or predictions generate nearly $200,000 in betting profits

The organisers of the Ballon d'Or are investigating suspicious betting activity after 12 accounts on the Polymarket platform correctly predicted the exact order of the top five footballers, generating nearly $200,000 (€179,000) in profits from stakes totalling $264,000 (€236,300).

An investigation by French online financial news outlet Upside found that the accounts on the US-based cryptocurrency-powered prediction market platform were created between 1 and 20 October, CE Report quotes STA.

Their activity raised suspicions that they could be linked to the same individual or group. Seven of the accounts had not previously participated in any other bets, while six placed their first bets just 15 minutes after being created.

All five predictions matched the official ranking announced at the ceremony held at the London Palladium on 26 October. England's Harry Kane won the Ballon d'Or, followed by France's Kylian Mbappe in second place, Spain's Lamine Yamal in third, Spain's Rodri in fourth and Argentina's Lionel Messi in fifth.

Upside shared its findings with representatives of the French football magazine France Football, which organises the award.

Investigation Already Underway

According to The Guardian, the magazine confirmed that an investigation had been launched and that the police had been notified.

The Amaury Group, owner of France Football, subsequently told French newspaper Le Parisien that it was preparing to file a criminal complaint over the alleged leak of the results and potentially fraudulent betting activity.

Upside co-founder Raphael Pautard told The Guardian that the investigators had managed to link one of the transactions to a French platform.

The investigators provided the platform with blockchain transaction data and cryptocurrency wallet addresses. The platform reportedly confirmed that it had identified the person who funded one of the suspicious accounts. Their identity has not yet been made public.

So far, there is no evidence that the award results were disclosed ahead of the official announcement. However, the unusually accurate predictions and betting patterns have raised questions about possible access to confidential information before the results were officially revealed.

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