Putin uses Kursk claims to delay ceasefire negotiations - ISW

Russian President Vladimir Putin has seized on statements about the alleged isolation of Ukrainian troops in Kursk region to distract from his recent rejection of the U.S.-Ukrainian proposal to cease fire.

This is stated in the report by the Institute of War Study (ISW), CE Report quotes Ukrinform.

Earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump wrote in Truth Socal about the "completely surrounded thousands” of Ukrainian forces, calling on Putin to “spare” their lives.

Putin responded that Russia " will guarantee the "life and decent treatment" of Ukrainian forces in Kursk region if Ukrainian forces surrender, repeating narratives about "crimes against Russian civilians." Putin stated that the Ukrainian authorities should order the Ukrainian forces to surrender in order for Russia to implement Trump's request.

"Putin is attempting to present himself as a reasonable and merciful leader with whom President Trump can engage and to generate a new narrative to distract from Putin's decision to reject the US-Ukrainian ceasefire proposal on March 13," ISW said.

Analysts add that after the Kremlin's statements after Putin's meeting with a U.S. special representative for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, on March 13, emphasize Putin's rejection of the U.S.-Ukrainian proposal to cease fire and further unwillingness to participate in good-faith negotiations in order to end the war in Ukraine.

"Putin likely intends to distract from and prolong any negotiations for a future ceasefire in Ukraine," the ISW report reads.

At the same time, the Institute of War Study found no geolocated evidence that Russian troops surrounded a considerable number of Ukrainian units in Kursk region or in other areas along the front line in Ukraine. The ISW recalled that in October 2024, Putin also declared the "surrounding" of 2,000 Ukrainian military in Kursk region, and even back then these statements were never confirmed.

American intelligence believes that Putin remains committed to the idea of capturing the whole of Ukraine, which is consistent with the long-term ISW estimates for Russia’s strategic goals.

The Washington Post, citing classified U.S. intelligence reports, said Putin is committed to the goal of dominating Ukraine. Current and former US officials told the Washington Post that if Putin did agree to a temporary ceasefire, Russia would use the ceasefire to rest and refit Russian forces and that Putin would likely break the agreement and falsely blame Ukraine for violating the ceasefire

Four Western intelligence officials and two US congressional officials told NBC on February 18 that intelligence from the United States and US allies shows that Putin still aims to control all of Ukraine and that there is no intelligence suggesting that Putin is ready for a peace deal.

According to ISW estimates, the Kremlin maintains its long-standing goals in Ukraine, which amount to Ukraine's full capitulation, and the Kremlin has maintained its expansionist rhetoric despite recent talks with the Trump administration about peace in Ukraine.