EU-Armenia relations in transformation: from constraint to strategic partnership - OPINION
By Aytan Aliyeva
Pre-2020 Framework: pragmatic cooperation
Before the Second Karabakh War, relations between the European Union and Armenia developed within a framework of pragmatic cooperation shaped by geopolitical constraints. Armenia became part of the EU’s Eastern Partnership in 2009, which aimed to strengthen political association and economic integration with several post-Soviet states. Initially, negotiations between the EU and Armenia advanced toward an Association Agreement that would have included a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. However, in 2013 Armenia decided to join the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), a Russia-led economic bloc, which made such an agreement incompatible. As a result, EU - Armenia relations were recalibrated and institutionalized through the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement, signed in 2017 and provisionally applied from 2018. This agreement became the central legal framework governing bilateral relations, covering political dialogue, sectoral cooperation, and reform commitments without establishing a free trade area.
The EU was one of Armenia’s key trading partners, although trade volumes remained limited compared to Armenia’s economic ties with Russia. Armenia benefited from the EU’s Generalized Scheme of Preferences Plus, which allowed preferential access to European markets and supported export diversification. Nevertheless, Armenia’s membership in the EAEU restricted deeper economic integration with the EU. The EU’s normative agenda gained significant momentum following the 2018 political transformation in Armenia, often referred to as the “Velvet Revolution,” which brought Nikol Pashinyan to power. The EU responded by intensifying political dialogue and increasing financial and technical assistance, emphasizing anti-corruption measures, judicial independence, and public administration reform. Through instruments such as the European Neighbourhood Instrument, the EU supported a wide range of development programs, including infrastructure modernization, rural development, and educational exchange initiatives like Erasmus+. Concerning the ‘Nagorno-Karabakh’ conflict, the EU supported diplomatic efforts led by the OSCE Minsk Group and advocated for a peaceful resolution based on international law.
Limited EU leverage during and immediately after the 2020-War
The relations between the European Union and Armenia were shaped by the EU’s limited geopolitical leverage in the South Caucasus and its preference for diplomatic and humanitarian instruments. When large-scale hostilities erupted in September 2020 between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the EU called for an immediate ceasefire, de-escalation, and a return to negotiations. EU institutions and key member states expressed support for the mediation efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group, reaffirming that the conflict should be resolved through peaceful means. The EU’s engagement during the war was largely confined to humanitarian assistance and political signaling. The EU provided emergency humanitarian aid to civilians affected by the conflict, including displaced persons and those impacted by infrastructure damage. Despite these efforts, the EU’s influence on the course of the war remained minimal, highlighting its limited capacity as a hard security actor in the region.
In the immediate aftermath of the war, EU - Armenia relations entered a phase of cautious re-engagement, with a stronger emphasis on stabilization, recovery, and reform. The post-war environment created new socio-economic challenges for Armenia, including the reintegration of persons returned to Armenia and the need for infrastructure reconstruction. The EU continued to deepen its engagement with Armenia under the framework of the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement. The EU maintained its strong support for democratic governance and institutional resilience, particularly important as Armenia experienced internal political tensions following the war. The government of Nikol Pashinyan faced significant domestic criticism, yet the EU backed the continuation of democratic processes, including early parliamentary elections in 2021.
Post - 2020 strategic deepening
Between 2023-2026, relations between the European Union and Armenia underwent a significant qualitative transformation, evolving from a primarily normative and technical partnership into a more strategic and geopolitically relevant relationship. This shift should be understood in the broader context of the post-2020 regional order, Armenia’s growing dissatisfaction with its traditional security arrangements, and the EU’s increasing willingness to act as a more visible actor in the South Caucasus.
At the institutional level, Armenia intensified its alignment with elements of the EU acquis, particularly in areas such as rule of law, judicial reform, public administration, and sectoral regulation. What distinguishes this phase from earlier periods is not the existence of the agreement itself, but the depth and political significance of its implementation. CEPA functioned not merely as a technical cooperation instrument but as a vehicle for gradual integration into selected EU structures, despite Armenia’s continued membership in the Eurasian Economic Union. This created a hybrid integration model in which Armenia simultaneously maintained commitments to two different economic and regulatory spheres, reflecting a pragmatic diversification strategy.
One of the most visible developments in this period was the advancement of visa liberalization. Building on the earlier Visa Facilitation and Readmission Agreements, the EU and Armenia launched a formal visa liberalization dialogue in 2024. This process required Armenia to meet a comprehensive set of benchmarks, including improvements in border management, migration governance, document security, and anti-corruption frameworks. Beyond its technical dimension, visa liberalization carries substantial political weight: it signals trust, institutional compatibility, and a recognition of Armenia’s reform trajectory. In this sense, the process can be interpreted as a soft integration mechanism, bringing Armenia closer to the EU’s internal space without offering a formal membership perspective. It also strengthens societal linkages by facilitating mobility, educational exchange, and labor opportunities.
Another defining feature of EU - Armenia relations in this period is the gradual expansion of the EU’s role in the security domain. The deployment of the European Union Mission in Armenia in 2023 marked a turning point, as it introduced a concrete EU presence on the ground in a sensitive border region. Although the mission is civilian and non-executive in nature, its strategic significance is considerable. This development is closely linked to Armenia’s reassessment of its security dependencies, particularly its reduced confidence in Russian guarantees. Economic and financial cooperation also expanded during this period, with the EU consolidating its role as a key development partner. Through instruments such as the Economic and Investment Plan under the Eastern Partnership framework, the EU supported infrastructure development, small and medium-sized enterprises, and the green and digital transitions.
In parallel, new areas of cooperation emerged, including energy diversification, digital transformation, and transport connectivity. These sectors are particularly significant because they align with both EU strategic interests and Armenia’s domestic reform priorities. Energy cooperation, for instance, reflects Armenia’s efforts to reduce dependence on a single external supplier, while digital and infrastructural projects support long-term economic resilience.
The prospect of a peace agreement and its implications for EU - Armenia relations
The prospect of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan represents a structural turning point not only for regional stability but also for the depth and trajectory of relations between Armenia and the European Union. This agreement would fundamentally reshape Armenia’s external environment, reducing security constraints and enabling a qualitative upgrade in EU - Armenia cooperation.
First, a peace agreement would significantly de-securitize Armenia’s foreign policy, allowing a shift from survival-oriented decision-making toward long-term development and integration strategies. Since the Second Karabakh War, Armenia has operated under persistent security uncertainty, which has limited its capacity to fully engage in economic and institutional reforms. A stable peace framework would reduce border tensions, lower military expenditures, and create political space for reforms aligned with the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement. For the EU, this would mean a more predictable and reform-capable partner.
Second, peace would unlock the connectivity dimension, which is central to EU strategic interests in the South Caucasus. The reopening of transport routes would transform Armenia from a relatively isolated state into a potential transit route linking Europe with the Caspian region and beyond. The EU has supported connectivity based on sovereignty and reciprocity, and a peace agreement would provide the legal and political framework necessary to implement infrastructure projects. This would enhance Armenia’s economic relevance for the EU and integrate it more deeply into regional value chains.
Third, a peace agreement would likely accelerate economic diversification and EU investment. Currently, Armenia’s economic structure remains constrained by closed borders and geopolitical dependencies. Peace would improve the investment climate by reducing political risk, making Armenia more attractive for European capital. Within frameworks such as the Eastern Partnership and EU investment instruments, funding for infrastructure, energy, and digital transformation could be scaled up. This would rebalance Armenia’s economic orientation, even while it remains a member of the Eurasian Economic Union.
Fourth, the normalization of relations with Azerbaijan would strengthen the EU’s role as a regional diplomatic actor. In recent years, the EU has positioned itself as a facilitator of dialogue between the two countries, complementing or partially replacing other mediators. A successful peace agreement would enhance the EU’s credibility and influence in the South Caucasus.
For Armenia, it would open pathways toward greater economic integration, diversification of foreign policy, and enhanced sovereignty through reduced dependency. For the EU, it would create a more stable and strategically relevant partner in a key transit region.
