Ukraine marks four years of Russia’s war

When Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine exceeded 1,418 days last month, it officially crossed a milestone.

It surpassed the same amount of time it took Moscow to defeat Nazi Germany in World War II, CE Report quotes ATA.

And unlike the Red Army that advanced to Berlin eight decades ago in what it called the Great Patriotic War, Russia’s four-year full-scale invasion of its neighbor is still struggling to fully capture Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland.

After Moscow failed to seize the capital Kyiv and install a puppet government in February 2022, the conflict turned into trench warfare with enormous costs. According to some estimates, nearly two million soldiers have been killed, wounded, or gone missing on both sides in Europe’s most devastating conflict since World War II.

Russia has occupied about 20% of Ukrainian territory since the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, but its gains after the February 24, 2022, invasion have been slow.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte this month compared Moscow’s progress to “the speed of a snail”.

Russian troops have advanced only about 40 kilometers in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region over the past two years while fighting fiercely for control of several strongholds.

Despite the slow pace and high cost, President Vladimir Putin has maintained maximalist demands in U.S.-mediated peace talks, saying Kyiv must withdraw its forces from four Ukrainian regions that Moscow illegally annexed but never fully controlled. He has repeatedly displayed his nuclear arsenal to deter the West from increasing military support to Kyiv.

A war of exhaustion

Initially involving fast movements of large numbers of troops and tanks in Russia’s rapid opening attack and Ukraine’s counteroffensive in autumn 2022, the fighting turned into a bloody positional war along a 900-kilometer frontline.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington estimated Russian military casualties at 1.2 million, including 325,000 killed. Ukrainian casualties were estimated at up to 600,000, including up to 140,000 killed.

“Russia has suffered the highest casualty rate of any major power in any war since World War II, and its military has performed poorly, with historically slow rates of advance and little territory to show for its efforts over the past two years,” it said, noting Russian troops advanced an average of 70 meters per day over two years to capture the transport hub of Pokrovsk.

For the first time in military history, drones are playing a decisive role, making it nearly impossible for either side to secretly mass large numbers of troops.

Since the start of the conflict, Ukraine has relied on drones to compensate for Moscow’s firepower advantage and slow its advances. However, Russia has dramatically expanded drone operations and introduced long-range fiber-optic-linked drones to avoid electronic jamming. They expanded the killing zone to about 40 kilometers from the front line.

The combination of high-tech drones and World War I-style trench warfare has seen small infantry groups — often just two or three soldiers — attempting to infiltrate enemy positions in cities flattened by heavy Russian artillery and glide bombs. Transporting supplies and evacuating the wounded has become extremely difficult as drones target supply routes.

Long-range strikes

Ukrainian officials described this winter as the most challenging of the war. Russia massively increased strikes on Ukraine’s energy system, causing power outages in Kyiv, where electricity was cut off for several hours a day due to extreme cold.

Russia also increasingly targeted power lines to block energy transfers and split Ukraine’s electrical grid into isolated islands, increasing pressure on infrastructure.

Ukraine responded with long-range drone strikes on oil refineries and other energy facilities deep inside Russia, aiming to “dry up” Moscow’s export revenues.

Its drones and missiles sank several Russian warships in the Black Sea, forcing Moscow to relocate its fleet from Russian-occupied Crimea to Novorossiysk. In a bold operation code-named “Spider Web”, Ukraine used truck-launched drones to strike several airbases hosting long-range bombers across Russia in June, a humiliating blow to the Kremlin.

U.S. pressure and conflicting demands

President Trump, who once promised to end the war within one day, has pushed to end the fighting, but mediation efforts have faced deeply conflicting demands.

Putin wants Ukraine to withdraw troops from parts of Donetsk region still under its control, abandon its NATO membership aspirations, limit its military, and give official status to the Russian language, among other demands that Ukraine has rejected.

Russia left open the possibility of Kyiv’s future EU membership but firmly ruled out European peacekeepers being deployed in Ukraine as part of any settlement.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wants a ceasefire along the current contact line, but Putin rejects a ceasefire and instead demands a comprehensive peace agreement.

“The territorial issue is important for the Kremlin, but the war has a more ambitious goal: to create a Ukraine that would be fully within Russia’s sphere of influence and not perceived by Moscow as anti-Russia,” said Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Ukraine and its allies accuse Putin of dragging out negotiations while capturing more territory. The Kremlin accuses Kyiv and its European supporters of trying to undermine a preliminary agreement reached by Trump and Putin at their Alaska summit.

While maintaining their positions, Putin and Zelensky have praised U.S. mediation and tried to gain Trump’s favor.

After a disastrous meeting at the White House a year ago, Zelensky adopted a more practical negotiating stance, emphasizing Ukraine’s goodwill.

After Trump called for presidential elections in Ukraine, Zelensky signaled readiness despite elections being prohibited under martial law. Elections could be accompanied by a referendum on a peace deal, he said, but insisted voting would only be possible after a ceasefire and after Ukraine receives security guarantees from the U.S. and other allies.

Elusive solution

Zelensky said the White House has set a June deadline to end the war and is likely to pressure both sides to meet it. However, although Trump appears eager for a peace deal before U.S. midterm elections, challenges remain.

With Putin insisting on Ukraine’s withdrawal from Donetsk and Zelensky ruling it out, a quick agreement seems unlikely. Zelensky also expressed skepticism about a U.S. compromise proposal to turn the eastern region into a free economic zone.

The Kremlin expects its attacks will eventually force Kyiv to accept Moscow’s terms. Ukraine hopes it can hold out until Trump loses patience and increases sanctions on Russia, forcing Putin to stop aggression. But Trump often appears to be losing patience with Zelensky instead.

War and Western sanctions have increasingly strained Russia’s economy. Growth has slowed nearly to a halt due to persistent inflation and labor shortages. Recent U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports have added pressure.

But despite economic challenges, Russia’s defense factories have increased weapons production, and its government has protected key social groups such as soldiers and industrial workers from hardship.

“Its economy is poorer, less efficient, and less promising than it could have been otherwise,” wrote Richard Connolly of the Royal United Services Institute.

“But it remains capable of sustaining the war. Its elites are more dependent on the regime, not less. Its political system is insulated from economic discontent translating into pressure for regime change.”

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