Poland's Growth Driven by Domestic Demand
Poland’s direct exposure to U.S. trade is minimal, and any negative effects from rising U.S. import tariffs will likely be indirect, mainly through Germany and automotive supply chains, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said, CE Report quotes PAP
Despite uncertainty around exports, Poland’s domestic demand remains strong. Falling inflation and higher real household incomes are expected to sustain private consumption. Accelerated investments in infrastructure, energy (backed by EU funds), and defense are projected to boost short-term GDP growth, with a rebound in private investment anticipated in 2026.
Declining global commodity prices could help bring inflation closer to the central bank's 2.5% target, opening room for interest rate cuts. This would support credit growth and investment while helping to keep the zloty from appreciating too quickly, enhancing export competitiveness.
