Hormuz closure fuels global energy surge
Following the joint attacks launched by the United States and Israel against Iran, Tehran’s retaliatory actions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have increased pressure on global inflation, while the risk of armed attacks on commercial vessels has heightened geopolitical tensions.
After the strikes initiated on February 28, Brigadier General Ebrahim Jabbari, adviser to the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, announced that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed to transit and that ships attempting to pass would be targeted, CE Report quotes Anadolu Agency.
These developments led to sharp increases in global energy prices. On the first trading day after the reciprocal attacks, Brent crude oil rose above $79 per barrel, reaching its highest level since January 2025.
Qatar’s state energy company QatarEnergy also announced it had halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production at two facilities due to military strikes.
Following the announcement, gas prices at the Netherlands-based TTF virtual trading hub — Europe’s deepest natural gas market — closed at €43.3 per megawatt-hour for April futures as of 20:00 local time yesterday. This marked a 35.5% increase compared to the February 27 closing level.
As risks escalated in the Strait of Hormuz, maritime insurers including NorthStandard, London P&I Club, Gard, Skuld and American Club announced they had received cancellation notices from reinsurers concerning war risks in Iran and the Persian Gulf.
Risk of global inflation
Tamer Kıran, chairman of the Istanbul and Marmara, Aegean, Mediterranean and Black Sea Regions Chamber of Shipping (İMEAK DTO), stated that a continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz would directly affect not only oil markets but also global inflation, production costs and supply chains.
He warned that while tanker freight rates may rise in the short term, the medium term could see a contraction in global trade volumes and economic slowdown. Ensuring maritime security, he emphasized, is vital for global economic stability.
Approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products — nearly one-third of the 65 million barrels transported daily by sea worldwide — pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day. About 85% of this volume is shipped to China, India, Japan and South Korea.
Although alternative export routes exist, they provide a combined capacity of about 5 million barrels per day, while roughly 10 million barrels cannot be transported without passing through Hormuz. Therefore, alternatives cannot fully replace the strait’s capacity.
Kıran advised Turkish shipowners operating in or planning voyages to the region to urgently review their routes and vessel positions.
Legal right of innocent passage
Professor Yücel Acer of Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University addressed the legal implications of closing the strait. He stressed that the fundamental rule under international law regarding straits is freedom of navigation and that civilian commercial vessels must be allowed passage even during wartime.
All ships have the right of “innocent passage” through the Strait of Hormuz without prior permission, provided they do not violate the laws or security of the coastal states. The waters of the strait belong partly to Iran, Oman and the UAE, but regardless of status, the right of innocent passage applies.
Acer noted that while Iran may require prior notification from foreign warships, it cannot generally block commercial vessels, except within its own territorial waters and under specific wartime conditions.
