U.S. foreign policy shift could have huge consequences for Ukraine and Europe – Munich Security Report

A shift in U.S. foreign policy will have major consequences for Ukraine and Europe as a whole.

That is according to the 2025 Munich Security Conference Report, presented on February 10, CE Report quotes Ukrinform.

"Donald Trump’s presidential victory has buried the US post-Cold War foreign policy consensus that a grand strategy of liberal internationalism would best serve US interests. For Trump and many of his supporters, the US-created international order constitutes a bad deal. As a consequence, the US may be abdicating its historic role as Europe’s security guarantor – with significant consequences for Ukraine," the report states.

According to the Munich Security Index, 34% of U.S. Democrats support increasing aid to Ukraine, while 35% favor maintaining current levels. In contrast, 19% of Republicans support increasing aid, with 33% favoring maintaining it and 27% wanting reductions.

Some Republican voices warn that "the cost of deterrence is far lower than the cost of war." However, the U.S. will likely shift more of the defense burden onto European NATO allies, the report suggests.

Trump has repeatedly changed his stance on ending the war in Ukraine, initially claiming he could end it in 24 hours, later revising that to six months. Recently, he stated that "the only way to get a deal is not to abandon Ukraine."

U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg has suggested a pressure-based approach: threatening Ukraine with a cutoff of U.S. military aid and threatening Russia with lifting restrictions on weapons to Ukraine. The aim would be to push both sides into ceasefire negotiations based on the current frontlines. Ukraine’s NATO membership would likely not be on the table, the report adds.

However, the report argues that Ukraine cannot accept such terms, as without strong security guarantees, Russia would use the ceasefire to rebuild and launch another attack. Moreover, there is no indication that Putin is willing to abandon his goal of regime change in Kyiv.

The report warns that Trump’s administration is expected to prioritize countering China and supporting Israel, potentially weakening U.S. commitment to NATO and Ukraine.

For NATO, Trumpism could have massive consequences. A formal U.S. withdrawal from NATO is unlikely, but trust in Article 5 (collective defense) and the U.S. nuclear umbrella will be questioned. Trump’s allies are drafting plans to scale back U.S. military presence in Europe and turn NATO into a “dormant” alliance. Given Europe’s slow military buildup and dependence on U.S. security, these changes could create a security vacuum, leaving Europe vulnerable to Russian aggression by the end of the decade.

On the other hand, the report suggests that such a scenario could force Europe to take full responsibility for its own defense.

The "Munich Security Index 2025" is based on representative samples of 1,000 respondents from each G7 and BICS country (Brazil, India, China, South Africa). In total, 11,000 people were surveyed between November 14–29, 2024 via leading online panels. The margin of error is ±3.1%.